Comparison of AIMS65 vs pre-endoscopy Rockall score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality at a tertiary care hospital of Punjab, Pakistan: which one is better?

Abstract

Objective: To compare the AIMS65 score with the pre-endoscopy Rockall score among patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding for the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Study Design: Analytical Cross-sectional study. Setting: Medical Unit III, Sahiwal Teaching Hospital. Period: August 2025 to March 2026. Methods: 123 patients who presented with upper GI bleeding in the emergency department were enrolled. For each patient AIMS 65 and Pre-endoscopy Rockall score was calculated. Data analysis was performed using SPSS. Area under the Curve (AUC) was determined for both scores using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age of the patients was 55.90 ± 14.7 years. Male patients were 56.1% in proportion. The total mortality rate in the hospital was found out to be 24.4%. AUC for AIMS65 and pre-endoscopy Rockall scores was 0.844 (95% CI: 0.772–0.917; p<0.001) and 0.834 (95% CI: 0.766–0.903; p<0.001), respectively. Both scores showed good predictive performance for in-hospital mortality. The difference between the two was minimal (0.010) and not statistically significant. Conclusion: AIMS 65 and Pre-endoscopy Rockall score are both equally effective for the prediction of in-hospital mortality among UGIB patients.